Some of my friends and colleagues working on issues on which Democrats tend to be better than Republicans appear to be putting issue advocacy on the back burner or have already begun to campaign as if their hoped-for election outcomes were inevitable. This is a mistake.
No one has been elected yet. While the tea-leaves seem to favor the Democrats a lot can happen between now and November. Some of us have been around long enough to remember confident claims that America would never vote for an actor for President, the double-digit Dukakis lead, Florida, and Kerry. And there was that long night in 1994 when a lot of us started working on our resumes.
Your allies are not always your friends. The Democratic majority in Senate relies in part on a Democrat who has endorsed John McCain for president and a former Secretary of the Navy for the most popular Republican president since Lincoln. Even when the Democrats are, you know, Democrats, their votes cannot be assumed on every issue. Regardless of who wins what, advocates will need members of both parties to succeed.
The Democrats are not the only ones with visions. While the left is coasting and dreaming, the right is fending off nightmares. If it looks as if the Democrats will win it all this fall the Republicans are going to start cutting deals now – they will secure half a loaf in June to avoid getting only crumbs next February. Advocates who think they will do better under unified Democratic rule need to work now to ensure there is something to work for next year.
The list of liberal demands is long. Advocates who wait until January 2009 will be standing in a long line. The last time there were Democratic majorities in the House and Senate and a Democrat in the White House America did not rush into a liberal nirvana of universal health care, clean air and global acceptance of Roe v Wade.
To ensure they are at the front of the line in January, to stave off bad deals cut by opponents and to cover their bets in case things don’t go as hoped in November, advocates need to lay the groundwork now. That means: framing problems in terms that are non-partisan; drafting model legislation or policy directions that respond to these problems; identifying Democrats and Republicans in congress and the agencies who will be in positions of power in 2009 and pitching them both the problem and solution; and running targeted efforts to put the problem and solution framework on the agenda this year with an eye to doing more work in the next session of congress.
Advocates need to start the right conversations with the right people right now to be in a better position win their issues in 2009 and beyond – regardless of what happens this November.
